The primary task of Ukraine’s partners is to help restore its energy capacity before winter and repel the Russian offensive around Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, and the discussion of the medium-term perspective causes disagreements, in particular, in connection with the uncertainty of the results of the elections in the United States. writes Bloomberg agency with reference to informed sources.
“… the war is approaching next winter, there are few signs of a breakthrough on the battlefield. This is prompting some allied officials to begin looking for ways to break the diplomatic deadlock,” Bloomberg said in an article published on the website on Tuesday.
According to knowledgeable sources, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is expected to “seek membership in NATO and the EU, economic and security agreements, and constant supplies of more modern weapons as part of his “Victory Plan.” He is due to present it to US President Joe Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly later this month. He also wants to share plans with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.”
The article notes that the ceasefire talks must address a key challenge: how to ensure that Ukraine is not vulnerable to a future Russian attack, while reassuring its allies that they will not be drawn into direct conflict with the Kremlin.
It is noted that any negotiations will also have to overcome the bitter legacy of the 2014 Minsk agreements. “For Kyiv and its supporters, this agreement, signed seven years before a full-scale invasion, indicates the danger of entering into negotiations with the Russians. Zelensky warned that Putin would again use the time provided by any ceasefire to regroup and eventually attack again,” the article reads.
One European military official is reported to share this view: “After any deal, Putin will be preparing for a new conflict.” “Furthermore, the official noted, it will be politically difficult for Zelensky to sign any agreement with territorial concessions while Putin’s goal of subjugating Ukraine remains unchanged,” the newspaper writes.
Some allies believe the time between November’s U.S. election and the president’s inauguration next January could provide a window of opportunity during which the outgoing Biden administration could have more political leeway to strike a deal. Continuation of military and financial support to Ukraine may face uncertainty due to the change of administration in the US and the rise of far-right forces in Europe.
If Trump wins the election, he also suggested he would pursue a deal during that time, without giving details. JD Vance, the vice presidential candidate, recently said that the former president’s plan could involve Russia keeping what it has captured and creating a demilitarized zone along the current front lines.
A senior US official said they expected “Zelensky’s plan to be quite maximalist and conceptual rather than detailed”. “The base scenario is that the inauguration has passed and the war continues to unfold, but the probability of alternative scenarios is not insignificant, the official added,” writes Bloomberg.
It is emphasized that the allies’ primary task at the moment is to help Ukraine restore its energy capacity before winter and repel the Russian offensive around Pokrovsk in Donetsk region.
However, according to officials, discussions of the medium-term strategy are divergent. “One camp is more fearful of Putin’s threats of escalation if allies allow Ukraine to use the weapons they supply deep in Russia, and is more inclined to support a move toward a diplomatic settlement. Other allies oppose negotiations in the near future and want to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine,” the article emphasizes.
The split over possible talks points to the long-standing frustration of many in Ukraine with allies’ reluctance to provide Kyiv with more weapons to use against Russian forces. Moscow, on the contrary, was able to increase the production of rockets and artillery ammunition. It also receives military support from countries such as North Korea and Iran, as well as key technology from China needed to produce weapons.
