In Ukraine, the real estate market may resume work as early as May, however, due to the violation of the pricing mechanism, it is difficult to predict what will happen to housing prices in the near future.
This was told by real estate expert Mykhailo Artyukhov.
He reminded that in the last 15 years housing prices were formed by the activity of builders and developers, who explained to potential buyers how much this or that apartment would cost. The “secondary” market was tied to the cost of new buildings.
However, says Artyukhov, there is currently no demand for new buildings as such and, most likely, in 2022, it will no longer be formed, and no one is engaged in the secondary property market.
“Currently, there is no demand for new buildings and it is unlikely to form in 2022. Also, neither developers nor banks will spend their budgets on real estate advertising this year, as was the case until recently. According to the results of 2022, the share of new buildings in housing sales will decrease from 60 percent to 20 percent in favor of the secondary market, where few people systematically deal with pricing. As a result, it is very difficult to predict the specific level of prices on the secondary market,” says the expert.
Development scenarios in the real estate market
“As a result, it is very difficult to predict the specific level of prices on the secondary market,” he said, but added that there are three options for the development of the situation.
According to the optimistic scenario, apartments in buildings up to 30 years old will increase in price by 5-10%, but will decrease in price by 5-10% in buildings older than 30 years.
Under a realistic scenario, housing prices are expected to fall by 5-10% in houses up to 30 years old and by 15% in houses over 30 years old.
But under a pessimistic scenario, real estate in houses up to 30 years old can decline by 15%, and in houses over 30 years old – by 20%.
Which of the three scenarios of the development of the situation in the real estate market will be implemented depends on the following factors:
cessation of hostilities on the territory of the country;
existence of an economic development plan;
the launch of the real housing mortgage lending market
Artyukhov believes that 2- and 3-room apartments located near metro stations will be most popular.