Against the background of problems with electricity in July 2024, Ukrainian enterprises worsened their six-month expectations and sharply slowed down the pace of recovery, testify data of the monthly survey of enterprises of the Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultations (IED).
“The situation with interruptions in the electricity supply negatively affected the six-month expectations (of the financial and economic situation at the enterprise – IF-U): we see a sharp drop – in June the indicator was equal to 0.55, and in July it decreased to 0.22”, – they state in the report, the words of IED Executive Director Oksana Kuzyakiv.
According to the IED chart presented, the last time this indicator was lower was in January 2023.
“Also, the share of enterprises operating at full capacity has almost halved. This is one of the signals that recovery is delayed in the short term. The only thing that has practically not changed is the share of non-working enterprises,” added Kuzyakov.
It is clarified that the share of enterprises with 100% utilization in July fell from 20% to 11%, and 75-99% – from 37% to 34%, while the share of companies with 50-74% utilization increased from 25% to 33%, 25 -49% – from 14% to 16%, to 25% – from 2% to 4%, and those who are idle – from 2% to 3%.
It is noted that the index of recovery of business activity (the balance between assessments better / worse year to year) decreased by three times – from 0.37 to 0.13. In particular, the share of enterprises that indicated that their business activity is higher than last year fell to 28.2% in July this year from 50.7% in June, and those that indicated a deterioration in activity increased to 15.3% from 13.3%, micro-enterprises are doing the worst.
In July, power outages remained the main obstacle to business activity – 78% against 65% a month earlier. This indicator corresponds to November 2022, when Ukrainian business first encountered such severe interruptions in energy supply after Russian attacks, and recorded them until March 2023.
In addition, among the obstacles, the danger to work increased in July – to 58% from 54% in June and the lack of labor – to 47% from 42%.
“In the top three, we again have a shortage of labor force due to the conscription and departure of employees. This obstacle has changed places with the growth of prices for raw materials, materials and goods. Earlier, we observed that problems on the labor market are less of a concern for enterprises, but they still remain relevant: now, in fact, every second business is talking about a lack of labor force,” said IED expert Yevhen Angel.
According to the study, the share of those experiencing difficulties in finding work increased from 34.6% to 50.8%, unskilled – from 28.7% to 37.8%.
In July, the share of those who expect prices to rise in the next three months increased significantly, from 21.8% to 38.6%, although this factor fell in the rating of problems from 3rd to 4th place, which it shared with decrease in demand for products and services.
At the same time, it is emphasized that the rate of reduction of optimism in the short term has stopped, and long-term business plans have even improved somewhat: the share of enterprises that plan to expand their activities has increased from 13.3% to 15.3%.
In July, 483 Ukrainian industrial enterprises located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine took part in the New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES) from IED.
