The most combat-ready Russian occupation forces are currently supporting the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, but it cannot continue indefinitely and may soon reach a climax, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a summary for August 27.
“The priority of the Pokrovsk direction for the Russian Federation is likely to affect Russia’s overall combat capabilities in Ukraine after any scenario in Pokrovsk, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defense against a Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region… Russian military command continues to prioritize the Pokrovsky Front, and not the expulsion of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region”, – is going in summary
Previously, ISW did not observe evidence that the Russian Federation was transferring units currently deployed near Pokrovsk to the Kursk region, instead, the Russian Federation was transferring reserve units from non-critical sectors of the front. Currently, ISW analysts do not predict the timing of the culmination of the Russian offensive in the Pokrovsk direction, but the redeployment of 30,000 Russian troops to the Kursk region may ultimately worsen Russian capabilities in the Ukrainian theater of operations after the culmination of the Pokrovsk offensive.
“Ukraine’s invasion of the Kursk region cast doubt on Putin’s theory of victory, seizing the initiative in a new area of operations and at the same time weakening Russia’s ability to maintain long-term initiative in certain areas of the front within Ukraine. The Russian command clearly prioritizes Pokrovsk at the moment, but this calculation is likely to change depending on when Russian forces reach a climax in the area, and the command will eventually have to fully reckon with the reorientation of its priorities to repulse the Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region,” – it is emphasized in messages
Russian forces are reported to have made significant tactical gains in the Pokrov direction and advanced more than two kilometers from their last confirmed position to the northwest in Novogrodivka in a matter of days.
“Russian troops are apparently prioritizing advancing along the railway line in Novogrodivka towards Pokrovsk instead of fighting through the entire urban area of the settlement… The Ukrainian command has probably decided that the defense of Novogrodivka is not worth the potential losses. Novogrodivka itself is not an operationally significant city – its potential capture would theoretically open the way to Pokrovsk, but Pokrovsk is more fortified and ultimately more significant than Novogrodivka due to its central position as a key logistics hub in western Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian forces are unlikely to will retreat from Pokrovsk without protecting the city… Therefore, the advancing Russian forces are unlikely to be able to sustain the current pace of conquests indefinitely, especially if they launch an assault on Pokrovsk itself,” ISW notes.
