Geopolitical forecast for 10–15 years
The European Union is entering the most difficult period of its existence. The war in Ukraine, energy turmoil, dependence on the US and deep economic disparities call into question its ability to remain a unified political and economic center. What seemed impossible a decade ago is now being actively debated: will the EU maintain its current form in the next 10-15 years?
Historical context: the role of the USA in the formation of Europe
After the Second World War, it was the United States that became the main architect of European stability. The Marshall Plan, the creation of NATO and large-scale financial aid created the basis for the future of the EU. For decades, America has been a guarantor of security and a key investor in the development of Europe.
Today, the center of Washington’s strategic attention is shifting to Asia, and Europe’s financial support is becoming more modest. In a number of countries, the opinion that the United States “takes more than it gives”, and the EU’s foreign policy framework is actually tied to American interests, is getting louder and louder.
Brexit: the first crack in the European monolith
The withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU was the first serious blow to the unity of the Union. London was not only one of the main budget donors, but also:
- one of the three leading economies in Europe,
- the center of world finance,
- an important military-political player with strong ties to the United States.
After Brexit, Europe has lost some of its economic and diplomatic weight. In Britain, at the same time, they openly voiced what was previously said behind the scenes: “we don’t understand why we need this association.” Such a precedent became an additional incentive for Eurosceptic movements across the continent.
Economic contradictions within the EU
Italy — one of the largest economies in the EU — is increasingly questioning the need to finance the weaker states of the Eurozone. Similar attitudes are growing in the Netherlands, Austria, Slovakia and even in Germany, which has traditionally played the role of the “engine” of Europe.
In periods of economic difficulties, the question sounds more and more clearly:
“Why should we keep others?”
This is no longer marginal rhetoric — it has become part of the political mainstream.
Is the disintegration of the EU possible?
The complete disintegration of the European Union is unlikely – the system is too integrated.
However, the transformation or partial separation of individual elements is becoming an increasingly real scenario.
Possible development options:
- Division into “core” and “periphery”.
The most developed states are deepening integration, while other countries are getting a freer format of cooperation. - Returning part of the sovereignty to the states.
National governments are increasing control over the budget, legal system or migration policy. - New exits from the EU based on the example of Brexit.
Under certain conditions, referendums or political campaigns on leaving are possible in Italy, Hungary or even France. - Slow erosion without formal decay.
The EU survives legally, but gradually loses its effectiveness as a political and strategic bloc.
Conclusion: what awaits Europe in the coming decades?
In the next 10-15 years, the European Union may indeed lose its current structure and political integrity. This leads to:
- the change in the global role of the United States,
- economic exhaustion and increasing debt pressure,
- internal financial imbalances,
- strengthening of Eurosceptic sentiments,
- fragmentation of political systems and reorientation of national interests.
It is too early to say whether it will be a full-fledged breakup.
But it is already obvious today that the Europe of the future will be significantly different from the Europe of today.
