US and European officials have reported that Iran has supplied hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to the Russian Federation to support the invasion of Ukraine. informs the American Institute for the Study of War in the summary for September 6.
“Iran and Russia previously signed a contract in December 2023 to supply Iran’s Ababil short-range ballistic missiles and Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. However, it is not clear which missiles are included in the recently delivered batch to Russia. Reuters reported on July 7 that Iran had expanded at least two of its defense industrial facilities outside Tehran from August and October 2023 to support the production of drones and missiles, some of which are destined for Russia.
Analysts believe that the Russian Federation is likely to use Iran-supplied ballistic missiles to target Ukrainian energy, military, and civilian infrastructure over the coming fall and winter to further destabilize Ukrainian society and destroy Ukraine’s defense and industrial base.
The transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles is part of the deepening of the strategic partnership between Iran and the Russian Federation, ISW notes. “Iran is seeking to reap economic and military benefits from its expanding partnership with Russia…Iran has also sought to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets…Acquiring the Su-35 could allow Iran to build up its air power more easily and independently, given that Iran’s current air the fleet is outdated and poorly maintained. Iranian leaders have also sought Russia’s support in modernizing its cyber capabilities and missile and space programs as part of expanding military cooperation. The United States and unspecified European countries have prepared a package of sanctions against Iran for this case,” analysts report.
At the same time, ISW commented on the statement of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who stated that no specific weapon will be a “tipping point” for Ukraine and that allowing Ukrainian forces to use US-provided weapons for long-range strikes against Russian military targets on Russian territory will not change the status of the war. “His comments ignore how weapons systems and the rules of engagement that accompany them affect Ukraine’s capabilities, and that changes in capabilities can change the course of wars. Western military aid remains critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, and Austin’s statement ignores Ukraine’s long-range strike capability, which is necessary to disrupt Russia’s rear bridgeheads,” the statement said.
Thus, analysts note, Ukraine can use only a limited number of domestic long-range strike systems and Western HIMARS to significantly threaten a limited number of Russian military facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the Russian Federation, on the contrary, continues to actively expand its capabilities to support deep precision strikes on Ukraine, increasingly purchasing ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea and continuing to expand its missile production, ISW notes.
