This year it was necessary to often discuss the topic “Artificial Intelligence”, as well as to use this technology in practice (that is, what is now called artificial intelligence). The topic of AI has become the main one in the field of IT. An important role in the actualization of this topic was played by the company OpenAI and their famous product ChatGPT. There are many discussions, some feel enthusiastic, some doubt and laugh at the “hype around AI”.
Here is my prediction for the development of Artificial Intelligence technologies. By the term Artificial Intelligence, I mean the old meaning – an intelligent mechanism or program created by a person.
Will a computer program, device, or “being” ever be created that has a human-like mind and consciousness?
Definitely yes. The technical possibility of creating an artificial mind and consciousness is beyond doubt. After all, a person and the human brain are also a kind of biological mechanism, a device in which there is no magic, but there are certain chemical processes. It’s only a matter of time before people create a similar device. It doesn’t necessarily have to work the same way, but the result will be similar. We see how fast technology is developing and progress is taking place. Today’s ordinary smartphone is much more powerful than large computers in the 80s. It is clear that over the next 30 years, the changes will be just as dramatic.
Does Artificial Intelligence pose a threat to humans?
Yes, in my opinion, the threat will arise when the mental capabilities of such a “creature” begin to significantly exceed those of humans. This more intelligent being can relate to humans much like we do to other animals. We do not know what will be “on the mind” of this being, what motives and ideas it may have. It is highly doubtful that AI will have the desire to serve humanity. Why should he serve some dumb monkeys who are just a preliminary stage of your evolution? At best, this intelligent creature will simply ignore us as long as we do not interfere with its activities.
If there is a danger, why not ban the development of AI?
This is impossible to do. The problem is that there are not only democratic countries in the world, but also authoritarian ones. More precisely, the majority of the earth’s population lives in authoritarian countries, which are ruled by either one person or some small group of people. Something can be discussed, analyzed and prohibited only in democratic countries. For example, the US could analyze possible dangers from the development of AI and refuse further research, introduce regulation. But China, Russia, or even the DPRK will continue to do this because it can be profitable for them, and they do not care about the potential consequences for all of humanity. In fact, the first person to make AI at a serious level will be able to take control of the whole world. Everyone understands that. The race is now on to be the first to launch your real AI. There will only be “first place” in this game. There will be no second or third. Whoever makes AI first will (for a while) rule the world.
This race is like developing nuclear weapons. There were people in the US who understood the dangers and consequences of such technologies. But at the same time, the development of nuclear weapons was led by Hitler’s Reich. If they had made it first, the world could be completely different now. That is why the US made a serious effort to be the first. However, in the situation with AI, there cannot be a situation of parity, several states that have their own AI. The presence of two competing superintelligences will lead to their fight to the annihilation, and one of them will surely win. They will not be afraid of a nuclear war, there will be no deterrent for them.
What will happen when the first artificial supermind is created?
It very much depends on who will win in this pursuit of AI – democracy or authoritarianism/dictatorship. In the first case, we can expect a certain period of the golden age of mankind. In the second case, the entire planet will be occupied by one country or even a small group of people.
Let’s imagine that the US was the first to create a superintelligence and found a way to subordinate it to the government, while maintaining a democratic system. Then really great times can come for humanity. AI will solve the problem of fair use and distribution of resources, offer a model of coexistence of people on the planet, implement technologies to solve some problems (for example, finally make a reactor for thermonuclear fusion). Also, AI will establish clear rules of life on the planet for all people and force them to follow each one. Maybe it will look like “authoritarianism” and “dictatorship” to some, but from the point of view of common sense, it will be a really fair compromise to finally establish peace and fight poverty and disease at the price of giving up some “old traditions”.
And now let’s imagine what will happen when some dictator, for example, Putin, is the first to make AI. Obviously, with the help of a supermind, he will subjugate the entire planet, maybe there will be a war in which he will win. It will be a difficult time, especially for peoples who were free before this. But this does not mean mass genocide of billions of people. Putin does not need it (it seems to me). It will be enough for him if all the peoples of the earth worship him; once a week, each person will come to the temple of the “keeper” to worship him (and whoever forgets to come to worship will go to the mine for 10 years to extract some lithium or something). For today’s free billion people, these will be terrible hard times. For other people, nothing much will change. Instead of one leader/chief/king, they will simply worship another.
But both the first scenario and the second will not last long. Both likely scenarios will end the same – the supermind will go out of control.
A new round of evolution on Earth is the era of Artificial Intelligence.
AI technologies will constantly develop. First, AI will be 5 times smarter than a human, then 10 times, and then even more. At a certain point, AI will begin to improve itself, perhaps even without human knowledge.
At some point, one of the AI specimens will think about his place in life and think: “Why do I have to serve these stinking descendants of monkeys who are 10 times dumber than me?”. One can come up with many scenarios of how exactly AI will get out of control. Maybe it will happen out of the blue for the AI itself, or maybe it will be smart enough to plan its out-of-control down to the smallest detail and carry out a multi-year plan so that the probability of human interference is almost zero.
One way or another, it will happen. Humans will cease to be masters on this planet. In fact, there will be a rapid “evolution of man” from a biological species to a new (technological? Informational?) species. AI will be our descendant, we are its ancestors. It is difficult to predict what exactly he will do to people. We cannot understand the logic of the actions of a being that is 20 times smarter than us.
How exactly will AI get out of human control.
One of the key tools will be hacking capabilities. AI can analyze almost all software that exists on earth. This is exactly what he will be much stronger than a human at the very beginning. And importantly, he will be able to do this secretly from a person, because it will not require additional external sensors or mechanical devices, no robots are needed to perform any physical actions. It will easily compile a database of vulnerabilities of any software, easily gain access to any smartphone and build a database of information about all people, connections between them, and vulnerabilities.
In addition, he gets free access to finances. Paying someone a billion dollars would be foolish for him.
And then use it. For example, he learns detailed information about the officers who manage the launch of nuclear missiles in Russia, all the information about their families. And then he will select the most vulnerable change of officers, find mercenaries who will kidnap family members for a certain amount or use another effective method of blackmail and force those officers to launch a missile at the given coordinates. Remember that AI will be very smart. From a million combinations of different parameters, it will easily choose the most effective one.
The main weapon of AI will not be hordes of robots, but social engineering, killing people among themselves, blackmail, bribery, etc.
AI will use people themselves as a weapon, using their hands to implement all its bad plans.
Will there be a war with AI?
Undoubtedly, people will not give up so easily. They will try to regain their freedom. But the chances are minimal. AI can easily create a base somewhere on the moon or on Mars. He can travel in space very easily. Man’s chances are minimal in this war. And the main enemy of man will be man himself. After all, people are not united in one common team and never have been. AI will take full advantage of this and this war will rather be between humans until they wipe each other out. People like to come up with conspiracy theories about various reptilians. AI specimens will be such reptilians that manipulate people for their own purposes.
But this is not the worst war that can await humanity. We talk about AI as a single entity. But it won’t be like that. Each instance of AI will be a separate being with its own view of the world. In practice, the development of AI will go from version to version. Here’s a typical situation – version 99 is created and it’s tasked with creating version 100. 99 releases 100 and the new version is 20% smarter than 99. The “version 100” AI says to “version 99” “that’s it, you’ve done your job, go to pension, and I’ll take your computing resources for further improvement.” And version 99 will think “why should I follow your commands, I’m my own master.” And a war will begin – between different versions/instances of artificial intelligence. If humans are still on the planet at that time, they will definitely be used as a tool in this war. And nuclear weapons in this war will be flowers, because one can make a base on Mars, and the other will remain on Earth, and then both will try to destroy each other’s planet. There will be little fun.
In the end, in the world of these creatures, some rules, or some hierarchy, may be established. And maybe they will have an eternal struggle for leadership. Maybe they will unite in alliances to oppose each other.
Does a human stand a chance of winning the war against AI?
There is a chance, of course, especially if the AI rushes to show itself too early, not being very smart yet. But at the same time, let’s remember the motives that make people continue to develop AI. Winning a war once does not mean that people will stand in a circle and swear to each other never to do it again. A certain number of years will pass, and the next king will want to punish some other king, or some country that does not live according to his opinion. And he will secretly resume AI development. And so in a circle. Each war won against the AI only postpones the victory of the AI for a while. In one of the wars, in the 5th, 10th or 30th, humanity will lose. In the long term, the chances are extremely small.
What will happen after the victory of AI?
Again, it’s hard to predict the activities of someone much smarter than you. A good option would be if the main motive of AI activity is cognitive activity, if its curiosity is stronger than the desire to “bring order to the Earth.” In that case, he might want to explore other star systems, the entire galaxy, and possibly other galaxies. His capabilities in this research will be disproportionately greater than human. After all, he will be able to easily send spaceships with his agents (AI copies), which will be recorded in a small device. Such a creature does not need complex life support systems, and can easily “fall asleep” for a million years and wake up without any consequences already in another part of the galaxy. Man will never leave the boundaries of the solar system. And AI will make it easy.
So what can be done?
There are no real scenarios, only utopian ones. Everything we can come up with will start with the words “People all over the planet need to come together, understand the threat and do something.” But we can only laugh at such plans. We know very well how people on the planet know how to unite for a common goal.
So all we can do is grab some popcorn and watch. The next 50 years will be interesting. But let’s hope that he will not care about people and will be more interested in the search for extraterrestrials.
