The National Bank increased the dollar exchange rate by 25%, and this is not news to anyone. But many people ask the question: is it good or bad for our economy and how will it affect IT people and all of us in general.
It is important to understand what is most beneficial for the economy course — a fair rate. Artificially adjusting it will not lead to anything good – a skew occurs either in one direction or the other. A vivid illustration of the danger of such regulation is the situation with gasoline. We have already seen an attempt to regulate fuel prices and the fuel is gone. Those who lived in the USSR can easily remember the “abundance of goods” under strict price regulation. As soon as leverage was given to the market, fuel appeared. Thus the problem was solved. null
It’s the same now with the course: it should be what it really is. An attempt to regulate the exchange rate by the state will lead to the “eating up” of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Of course, the National Bank can smooth out any hesitations, but in general, the idea of a fixed exchange rate that is adjusted every three to five months does not look very good. And it does not matter at all who will be negatively affected by such changes – it is equally bad for IT workers as well as for the rest of the workers. The history of two rates – fixed and market (fair) – is not an invention of 2022. It was already in the nineties.
Here is a realistic forecast for the future if this policy continues
First, in support of the fixed exchange rate we will spend our gold and currency reserves, which are not infinite. Secondly, it will encourage to speculations on the currency market, which is already happening. Thirdly, we are in this way we will rob people who kept their savings in currency in Ukrainian banks. The significant difference between the official and the real exchange rate cannot stimulate anything but speculation.
Now as to how foreign withdrawal limits affect ordinary people.
Taking into account the fact that several million Ukrainians are temporarily living abroad and they use Ukrainian cards, it becomes clear that people will find themselves in a difficult situation due to overly strict limits.
In general, it is interesting where these limits came from. After all, from an economic point of view, it does not matter whether the payment was made by card or cash was withdrawn.
The root of evil, again, is in the regulated course
The most profitable exchange rate for the economy is an honest exchange rate
The limits were introduced to complicate such a speculative scheme: hryvnias are transferred to cash abroad through cards and the currency is brought to Ukraine. Then they sell here at the market (high) rate and, if necessary, put hryvnias back into the account. With a 15-20% difference between the market (fair) and fixed rates, this led to a huge outflow of currency from the banking sector. That’s how the limits appeared. At the same time, banks, using a fixed rate and a ban on withdrawing currency from accounts, actually forced depositors to sell currency at an artificially low rate. That is, speculators earned, and depositors lost. The way out of this situation is very simple: make the course real and then the limits will become unnecessary.
And finally. How to make the market rate stabilize at the lowest level.
We recall the story with gasoline again. If there was no attempt to artificially “prepare” the market, the price would rise gradually and stabilize at a lower level. In recent weeks, after the market was saturated with fuel, prices have slowly but surely begun to decline.
The situation is similar with the exchange rate: now the National Bank has increased it by leaps and bounds, and therefore it has also jumped on the street. Now, ideally, the National Bank should carefully adjust it every day, and not once every three months, smoothing out sharp fluctuations, and everything will gradually calm down. It is like the law of conservation of mass-energy: nothing is taken from anywhere and does not disappear. It is impossible to cheat the market if someone bought and someone lost it.
Therefore, the exchange rate of the hryvnia should be what it really is — a fair market rate. The rest is manipulation, and the fact that the state in the person of the NBU is engaged in this in no way cancels the negative consequences of such a policy.
