According to forecasts of international organizations, the growth rate of world trade should more than double this year, as inflation eases and the rapid growth of the US economy contributes to increased activity.
The OECD, IMF and World Trade Organization forecast a sharp recovery in global goods flows this year after a slowdown in 2023 caused by rising prices, rising interest rates and sluggish demand.
According to the OECD, world trade in goods and services will grow by 2.3% this year and by 3.3% in 2025. This compares with growth of just 1% last year.
Claire Lombardelli, the OECD’s chief economist, said much of the growth was due to a “cyclical recovery” as trade rises alongside overall economic growth. She added that China and East Asia are expected to be the main drivers of activity.
Increased trade has already helped boost growth in some of the EU’s biggest economies in the first quarter of 2024. Overall eurozone growth rose 0.3% from the previous three-month period, the strongest since the third quarter of 2022.
“We have stronger trade figures this year and next year – we’re seeing some pretty positive changes on the trade side,” Lombardelli said.
German exports grew faster than forecast in March, rising 0.9% from a month earlier, contributing to a 3.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, according to data released on Tuesday. Imports to Europe’s largest economy also rose by 0.3% in March and by 1.7% in the first quarter.
The IMF also predicts that world trade growth will reach 3% in 2024. The WTO, which does not provide forecasts for trade in services, expects trade in goods to grow 2.6% in 2024 after falling 1.2% last year.
